This year it started on May 4 and runs until April 26, 2025. It’s such a thrilling sport and at its best when you get the chance to see the horses close up in the flesh. You can spend a wonderful afternoon or evening with friends, grab a drink, have a meal and, if you want, place a bet. Horses race over obstacles and on the flat – these are called, simply enough, jump racing and Flat racing.
Monday 22 April’s Horse Racing Results
The average winning SP since 2012 has been 27/1, and there have been nine winners priced 20/1 or bigger since the race’s inception in 2005; so the market doesn’t have a clue who wins either! The suggestion, then, is to ignore anything shorter than 16/1 and try to make a case for two or three darts, win only, for small change. The win market is all about Constitution Hill, who better ratings judges are suggesting is the best we’ve seen in a very, very long time. If that’s right, he’s a fair enough price for those who like playing big at short.
- Trainer Charlie Longsdon is bullish about his chance and, on the evidence of the book, he’s a place possible at least…
- And with Enable making her long-awaited return in the Coral-Eclipse on Sunday, the stage is set for a sporting showdown to savour.
- Below is the same information but with the key metrics ranked, e.g.
- 33/1 Veneer of Charm wins well to make it a treble in the afternoon for Gordon Elliot.
‘Devastated’ Aidan O’Brien hits out at Melbourne Cup stewards as Jan Brueghel is ruled out
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. If that’s correct, we’d expect a steady tempo to the race; after all, if you’re leading without any contention, it makes sense usually to conserve as much energy for the finish as possible. With three or four habitual waited-with sorts in opposition, which if any have shown the ability to quicken off a potentially false gallop? Our Fast Finishers report suggests the well-backed Dingle, but only tentatively at best. The caveat is that we’re looking for a horse that we hope will get an uncontested lead; that is, one which looks as though it is the lone pace angle.
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- You can look at a horse’s past performances to work out whether the ground conditions will suit – and it’s understanding these crucial variables that can give punters the edge.
- Burning Victory was the beneficiary of Goshen’s black swan event at the last in the Triumph Hurdle of 2020 and she’s travelled all over the place since.
- He’s not been nearly as flashy as those shorter in the market but he’s highly effective and has been well on top each time in spite of narrower margins of victory.
- Their promotional offers for horse racing are more than decent, frequent throughout the year, and all the more interesting around big race meets.
- Deviating the other way, to soft, we see a fairly consistent picture for winners of one to three previous races on soft turf.
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Breeders’ Cup 2024 at Del Mar: a look at Aidan O’Brien’s team on Saturday night
I need to watch it again, but he looked pretty good today, and it’s exciting. Henry Longfellow stuck on well for second and was only beaten a neck, with three lengths back to French Guineas winner Metropolitan. But the big disappointment of the race was the 6-4 favourite Notable Speech, who never really threatened to get in a serious blow. Gordon Elliott’s big hope was sent off the 8-11 favourite for the opening race on day two, having arrived unbeaten in six starts under rules. But the winning post is not on the home bend and there were no signs of panic from de Boinville, as good a man for the big occasion as there is riding in Britain at the moment.
Rachel King: The Australia-based British jockey riding a Japanese horse in an American race
Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going. This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie. Both of those might be expected to eke out a little improvement; and look at the contextual snippets block – accessed by clicking the trainer icon (with the red box around it). There we see Fry’s two year record with handicap debutants at any track, which is fairly unexciting, but note above it his record when moving a horse notably in distance. A perfect example of a terrible race in need of a winner, with a single horse moderately favoured by conditions and within a few pounds (see right hand columns) of its last winning mark.
Cheltenham Festival Novice Grade 1 Micro System
What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers). Five of the last 13 winners had run in Bolts Up Daily the Ultima Handicap the previous year. Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins. Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only – and therefore first choice – entry.
Horse racing tips: 11-1 shot will relish the soft ground and can bolt up at Catterick
The merit of that heavy ground G1 form is unclear with the second and third getting thumped next time, but the winner could have done no more. He is clearly a very classy recruit whose maiden win offers hope that the quicker Cheltenham turf won’t be a problem. We have to yet to see what he’ll find off the bridle, though, and it is hard to imagine any horse taking this ‘on the snaff’. Of course, it is sometimes difficult to predict who the favourite will be pre-race which can be an issue for trying to exploit ‘market data’. However, as a general rule, the stronger the favourite the better. What I mean by that is, horses who are a much shorter price than the second horse in the betting tend to do best here at the festival.
Horse Racing Betting in 2023: Five Key Differentiators
- He has gone close a few times in these big handicaps and if his top rider can smuggle him through then he has every chance.
- Noisy Jazz is going the right way and could give the selection a race if getting cover early.
- He was extremely impressive on his debut at Fontwell last month, travelling strongly and powering clear on the run-in without breaking sweat.
- The table above shows the performance in handicaps of four to seven runners over the last five years.
- Her price represents a very solid each way bet in an open section and, as you know by now, if she doesn’t run it’s money back.
- This has presumably been the target for Paul Hennessy’s charge; he also owns and bred her.
No horse comes without some downsides and, as ever, the challenge is to weigh the negative against the prevailing odds. In my view, and that of most of the rest of the world, easily the three most likely winners are the trio at the head of the market; but their credentials are largely reflected in their prices. On his latest outing, Pats Fancy was a three length second to Bravemansgame in receipt of 16 pounds. His stable mate, Beatthebullet, is more than two stone ‘wrong’ with the top rated of these and appears to be the much maligned ‘social runner’. In that earlier preview, I found it impossible to oppose Honeysuckle. I still do, though after an electric gear change to settle the race last time she didn’t really stretch away as it appeared she might.
Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 6 👇🏼
He has already won a novice hurdle over 2m5f at Kempton back in 2021, and ground doesn’t seem to bother him. There are many ticks in boxes when looking at his overall profile, and it’ll be a big disappointment – mainly in terms of my ante-post bets – if he can’t go close. All of the last 14 winners raced over 2m4f-3m last time out. All of the last 14 winners had won over hurdles from no more than 10 hurdle runs. If you’re looking for racing tips, see our completely free daily horse racing tips from our experts in our Daily Horse Racing tips section.
Cheltenham Festival Open Grade 1 Micro System
She should have plenty more to come over this trip and, unlike the favourite, we know for certain that she’ll stay. In the possibly the most open Derby in recent memory, you can give a chance to almost all the runners. He finished off strongly when fourth at Wolverhampton on his latest start. MAHLER MISSION has been kept fresh since a fine second in the Coral Gold Cup last Autumn.
Urgent hunt for missing boy, 14, last seen at train station five days ago
Five-year-old Marie’s Rock had won a Listed mares race at Taunton, and Love Envoi was a year away from making her debut. The outcome of the race largely depends on Lossiemouth’s ability to stay the 2m 4f distance today. However, her tendency to be keen raises a doubt about her effectiveness over longer distances. Last year’s runner-up, Love Envoi, is a contender for the places once again.
- Now, field sizes are smaller, the quality of bipeds and quadrupeds alike is higher, and it is consequently a far more predictable affair.
- I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he’s going to be vulnerable in the last quarter of the race.
- For De Sousa it was confirmation of a return to the very top in Britain, after his spell in Hong Kong ended prematurely following a 10-month suspension imposed for breaching betting rules.
- The five-timer-seeking Caius Chorister is worth throwing into the melting pot, in company with Night Of Luxury and Sheer Rocks.
- There are plenty of top class efforts in that sequence, a positive which has to be balanced against the busy campaign; that said, she’s had only the one run in 2022.
- Whether this horse with racing has got quicker and so maybe coming back in trip might be what we need to be looking at.
Cheltenham Festival Handicap Hurdle Micro System
All the talk’s about Altior with less than 15 minutes left until the big race of the day. Late change of jockey in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle. Davy Russell has been stood down for the day after his fall from Bless The Wings in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase. 33/1 Veneer of Charm wins well to make it a treble in the afternoon for Gordon Elliot.
Likely to be at least truly run, and potentially a little fast early; the winner will need to travel and jump at top speed as well as possess sufficient stamina to see it out after the last. For the final segment of this article I want to have a brief look at Grade 1 races. These races comprise 50% of the 28 Festival contests and, in the last 15 years, they have accounted for roughly the same percentage of all the Festival contests (some of the newer races being upgraded during the review period).
And then, when it was all going so well, along came that King George; never going the pace there and succumbing to a couple of – these days – uncharacteristic blunders and pulling up. The favourite, at around 7/2, is A Plus Tard, whose Betfair Chase demolition job at Haydock propelled him to the top of the lists. A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts. Three of those races have been at the Festival where he has the full set of medals; his only gold, mind, came in a handicap, and he’s since finished third in the 2020 Ryanair and runner up in last season’s Gold Cup. That maiden score, like his flat maiden win, was on good ground and, with the drying forecast, conditions look to be in his corner.
But, on balance, I’ll stick with what I have and cheer the champ to repeat and remain unbeaten. Ten of the 15 years would have yielded a profit, and a very good one in nine of those ten positive renewals. Three years made small losses, two years quite big losses. In this article I will attempt to break down the facts and figures going back as far as 2008. This gives us 15 years’ worth of data to crunch, which is plenty to get our teeth into.
‘His season starts here’ – 85/1 Gordon Elliott Down Royal accumulator on Friday
If you want to go a little deeper, however, you can click on the horse’s name to access its profile page, which will show you past performances. Here you can see what races it has previously contested, where they were staged, over what distance, and where the horse finished. This will help you understand how the horse might fare in today’s race. A quick look at the racecard will debunk the myth that reading the form is hard.
Of stable form, it can be seen from the right hand part of the chart that the Henderson hordes have not been firing at their highest rate in recent months. Nor, mind you, has the win percentage been anything other than aspirational for most other yards. The Brown Advisory would have meant a likely clash with Monkfish, the Arkle a ding dong with Shiskin, Energumene and Allmankind. The Marsh feels a bit like the coward’s route for a horse boasting his CV.
LH – Thyme Hill form awful, the time was “glacial” 😆 Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe. Without rain, not sure he’ll enjoy downhill sections of the track. MT – Would love to own Hermes Allen, but wouldn’t run him in this race!
These older lads and lasses are now 0 from 24, though Faugheen looks a live chance in a novice chase, probably the Marsh (former JLT) this time around. Philip Hobbs is 0 from 17 in this type of race in the review period, and has only had one horse placed. That was Fair Along, third in the 2008 Champion Chase, and Hobbs tends to fare better at Aintree, though he’s had a wretched season blighted – one suspects – by a touch of the virus. Just one of the 94 runners sporting blinkers or cheekpieces won – Our Vic in the 2008 Ryanair – and such horses’ place strikerate is poor, too.
MT – This is a great betting race, as it’s a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result. Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years. Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.
True, since transferred to Closutton he’s won his maiden by a street, but again that form looks shallower than the toddlers’ end at your local baths. He’s pretty exposed is this chap and he’s shown very little. Of course, he can win, but there’s now’t in the book to say he should. Minella Indo won the Gold Cup in 2021 and was second a year later; pulled up in the Blue Riband twelve months ago, his sights have been lowered considerably and he had a reconnaissance visit in the December handicap over track and trip. There he conceded a stone and a half to Latenightpass but was beaten only five lengths or so. He’d started out this season winning a Grade 3 at Punchestown but was last of the four in the Grade 1 at Down Royal after which this new plan was hatched.
His form looked to have regressed through the summer but the return to soft at Haydock last time showed he is just ground dependent. She’s a proven Group performer and David Egan will be hoping he can get plenty of cover from stall four. Jarraaf is improving through the ranks and has impressed twice over this track and trip. The main threat is likely to come from the unexposed Min Huna. William Haggas’ filly was a smooth winner of a handicap at Sandown last month and should still be competitive off an 8lb higher mark.
Recent form shows how well they’ve been running, Last Run is the number of days since their last outing and the forecast is the forecast decimal odds according to Timeform. As with any form of betting, there are always risks involved. While Free Horse Racing Tips can increase your chances of winning, there is no guarantee of success.
The only one really fitting the bill from a price perspective is Tanganyika who is second reserve. He is quite interesting on his run behind subsequent Grade Kyrov and Golden Son in France. Now with Venetia Williams, Tanganyika was beaten eight and a half lengths in that Auteuil race. Kyrov is currently rated 75kg (165), Golden Son 71 (156) and Tanganyika’s mark in France is 61.5 (135). Here, he has just 121, a full stone below his French rating.
More generously, it is the best opportunity to extend the winning sequence. In terms of potential rivals, Royale Pagaille has looked a mud machine this winter, but that one has numerous other possible engagements, principally the Gold Cup itself. Moreover, the two horses are in the same Ricci ownership and will surely attempt to divide and conquer. He has blitzed the best of the Irish this season, and he did the same to the best of the British and Irish here last season over hurdles. Lousy puns aside, he won his beginners’ chase in a canter before being merely pushed out to record a pair of Grade 1 successes in recognised trials, by three lengths and then eleven lengths from the talented Latest Exhibition. At an each way price, she is the final leg of this magnificently sneaky seven.
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